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In the last four decades Australia has been, under governments on both sides of politics, a world champion of free-trade. Yet, what has been achieved with that is nothing short of shame and misery. And still today some free-trade thinkers propose that we take the single stand of opening up our borders completely and unilaterally to foreign trade. Madness never so much disguised itself as a sensible thing as in this matter.

There is something that must be said upfront: free-trade, as well as its related neo-liberalism, free-market economics or economic rationalism is an ideology – it’s not science, not even economics is a science, but it’s a political inclination. This means that the people that propose free-trade at all costs do not answer to reason but just obsessively hammer the same key all the time.


What is then the argument for free-trade? In a nutshell, the idea is that if two countries abolish tariffs and open their economies to trade with no customs barriers at all, both will benefit from that. Why? Because industries on both sides would shape up, the strong competitive ones wining, the underperforming ones being eliminated. Obviously, they hope that this would happen reciprocally on both sides of the border, each country specialising on what it does best, so the consumer on both sides would be better served with price and quality.

Since the 1970s Australia has embraced this view and taken measures accordingly by reducing tariffs progressively. What has been achieved, though, is nothing short of abysmal. Up unto the 1970s Australia manufactured everything that it consumed. Since then, as it has removed tariffs, the result has been that all that manufacturing industry that then existed was demolished and that we now import all we consume.


We have had Current Account Deficits (CAD) with the rest of the world in the last 24 years and our Foreign Debt now stands at $700 billion. If you need a recipe for a headheck, think of what would happen to us if, within this global financial crisis that we still live in, our creditors demanded the repayment of that debt in full now.

Moreover, and contrary to belief pushed by free-market economists, no new industry was born from the ashes of the destroyed industries. We just live on rural and mining exports of mostly unprocessed and no value-added products and a services sector. We send our iron ore and coal to foreign countries and buy from them steel and equipment. We sell our Merino wool to Asia and buy back wool fabrics and clothes. And so on.

The removal of tariffs has been for Australia like losing an arm and a leg. Without a manufacturing industry it must keep on buying from overseas countries what it cannot produce. Problem is: it cannot afford it.

A strong manufacturing industry base is of utmost importance to any country: it employs large numbers of people; it intermingles with other areas of the economy, providing inputs and outputs for it; it produces (should) most of what the country needs to use and can be a vehicle for export. Altogether it’s not little.

All the great economies have had large, self-sufficient internal economies. Just think of the United States since World War I, and also Germany and France. Now-a-days, upcoming China is trying with some success to create a large internal economy in which manufacturing is paramount, so that the country relies less on exports.

We have heard so much about tariffs that it is necessary to ask: honestly, what is wrong with tariffs? Tariffs are a duty imposed on the base export price of an imported article. They make it more expensive and, ideally, bring its price to the consumer closer to the prices of products made at home. This way the homely product has a chance of being sold and its paid price stays also at home, circulating in its economy, creating gains and employment.

The World Trade Organisation (WTO) imposed tariff removal from most countries of the world, but most of them imposed in substitution quantitative restrictions. These are quotas, or maximum numbers of an item that can be imported and which has worked better than tariffs. Australia, single-handedly, has not imposed any quantitative restrictions on its imports.

Australia has Free Trade Agreements (FTA) with several countries such as New Zealand (CERN), with the US (USAFTA), with Japan and Korea, multilaterally with the countries of the ASEAN and, in the pipeline, with a quantity of other Asian countries. This sounds interesting but consider the results of the free trade agreement with the US, as just one example of the practical result of these treaties: since its inception in 2003 trade has been unfavourable to Australia by $500 million.

The argument for tariffs, quantitative measures and all types of import restrictions and trade barriers, derives from this instinctive need to protect internal economies from foreign competition. This is an issue of national interest but also, in a certain way, an issue of national security since, the way that it is going, we are just committing economic suicide. It could be said that a government that removes all our tariffs and exposes our economy to be crushed by foreign competition is culpable of, not just mismanagement, but also of betrayal.
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How Should We Go About Free-Trade

May 27th 2010 11:59
We all hear from time to time about protecting our industries and our jobs from foreign competition, but we also hear about liberalising our external trade so that only the fit, competitive industries remain in place while the fat ones disappear to give way to more productive ones.

It’s funny that when I went to university, the economics lecturer did not just expose the topic, he also pushed his credo. With regards to free-trade, he told us that the way to go was about removing all tariffs, even though none of us could envisage how that would save thousands of jobs in our Australian car industry, together with the taxes paid by these businesses to our government which expends them with the general community.

In truth, economics has a bad reputation since, at the level of the student, it does not allow for critical thinking. Students are told how to think and the doctrine of the day prevails. This is surprising if we consider that critical thinking, whatever the chosen subject, is what you go to uni to develop.

Since the 1970s we have been bombarded by the theory of neo-liberal economics, also called free-market economics or economic rationalism. Its proponents proclaim that the government should be minimal and should not intervene in the economy, and that it should not try to pic winners but should sell most of its assets. It also says that consumers always act rationally and make choices accordingly. With regards to external trade, it declares that there should not exist any barriers to trade.

Neo-liberal economics is inspired in nineteenth century economics thinking and in people such as Adam Smith, David Ricardo and others. As we all know, Adam Smith – who wrote The Wealth of Nations -- saw an invisible hand driving any free market into equilibrium, which is a point where demand and supply stably meet in an automatic way. The question for us today is whether this ever happens in practice.

David Ricardo, after making a fortune in the stock market, wrote books that influenced the thinking of his day. He founded the current economic rationalism idea that economies should be totally open to international trade. His main reason: that this way each country of the world would produce what it is most apt at producing, which is what it can compete with greater probabilities of success. A priori the idea is interesting. But does it in reality work? Let’s have a closer look into it.

Ricardo gave one example of his thinking: the trade between England and Portugal by which England sells to Portugal manchester goods, of which it is a very efficient producer, and Portugal sells to England its famous Oporto wine. England would avoid producing Oporto wine or any similar product, since it is not very good at doing so, and rather import it from Portugal; and Portugal would avoid trying to produce manchester goods, which it is not very good at producing, but would rather import them from England. If you put down some figures to this idea, you have to conclude that there is some merit to it.

This is, though, not all about Ricardo’s free-trade idea. He makes two assumptions: (1) that all capital, which in economics is plant and machinery, is infinitely deployable elsewhere; and (2) that all labour is equally infinitely deployable into other industries. That is, if the re-organisation of industry resulting from free international markets means that your capital and labour are uprooted, you can be assured it can be deployed elsewhere. But can it truly in reality be so? Let’s look into a contemporary example.

Mozambique is a nice country in the east cost of Africa. It is also my country of birth. Its ruling party, Frelimo, abandoned its 1970s colonial Marxism indoctrination and transformed the country into a democracy, a true one, to be proud of. It also liberalised its economy. But it didn’t go crazy about removing tariff barriers to its industries. Problem was, it run into financial trouble in the 1990s and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) was called in.

Now, the IMF is made of conservative, free-market thinkers, now during democratic Obama rule, and before with Clinton’s rule as well. They are just entrenched there, regardless of who sends them the money. In Mozambique they just imposed as a condition for help that the country removed all its trade barriers. The Frelimo government had no options.

In Mozambique, since the Portuguese colonial times, there existed a small nice industry producing Caju cashew. In Mozambique almost every household has some Caju tree in their backyard, and so every year the owner makes some money selling it to the processing company, this one called Mocita. Mocita would roast the cashew, extract it and package it for export. They made a nice profit, provided employment to thousands of workers, since it was labour intensive, besides buying the Caju from individual local suppliers. The only problem with Mocita became: they were protected by tariffs and the IMF wanted them down.

The Mozambican government argued with the IMF about the liberalisation of the Caju industry, but the IMF was inflexible: all tariffs had to go. And so they did in the end. What happened next? India, that could process the cashew for a lower cost and so also sell it cheaper, got the entire Mozambican production of Caju cashew the year after tariffs were removed and Mocita just closed its doors. Thousands of workers lost their jobs, the government lost some precious tax revenue and the country lost a long-standing industry.

David Ricardo assumed that capital and labour would be deployed elsewhere, but in Mozambique retrenched workers found no other employment, and the Mocita capital lays there rusting. So much for free-trade.
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Do you, dear reader, have a habit of looking into businesses as you travel around daily? When I go through Marrickville in my bus back from work I always observe the businesses around. Most of them seem to be quite profitable and well run. Interestingly enough, some rare ones don’t.

I am thinking of the second-hand furniture and electrical business in Victoria Road. If they sell a couple of items they probably make the day, but they don’t seem to be busy.

Now consider the two newsagents on Marrickville Road. They thrive, they’re always busy, they seem to be making lots of cash all the time. And the same goes for many other businesses there.

If you had a bag of money on hand and wanted to buy a business to explore, what sort of business would you go for? The run-down second-hand furniture, which should sell at a low price-to-earnings, or the newsagent, which should certainly be more expensive?

This is an old story: the paradigmatic new car dealership may make a few trades in good times and so the upmarket one as well. If one customer though, turns down a deal it hurts you. And if bad economic times ensue, you won’t make many trades and might even go under.

Compare this now with the thriving newsagent. He makes hundreds to thousands of small trades a day. His revenue comes from different items such as newspapers, which have small margins, to magazines which have high ones. He also sells the Lotto and Lotteries which might have low margins but very high turnover.

Now, if in an economic downturn, the newsagent can continue to sell their items, in part because they are low priced and in part because people just don’t go without them. The newsagent survives a recession.

The triumph of the newsagent is selling a lot, creating lots of cash-flow and, if necessary, being able to negotiate terms with suppliers. But generally, if you have a lot of money coming daily from sales, you are a lot more comfortable with your budget. You have money and so you can pay and because you can pay you can get credit. Money brings in more money.

Considering this you could think that the newsagent business is the kind of business that could expand. You could buy other such business and chain them, or buy vertically, who knows.

I’m convinced that great businesses must be high turnover, high cash flow type. Just think of Woolworths, perhaps the greatest Australian company. Their secret is to make many small trades every hour, which keeps their shelves being replenished all the time and their till ringing. Because they command large sales, suppliers elbow each other to win contracts with Woolworths and so this one can set the rules.

A low turnover business can never do this and, instead, has to accept the rules of the supplier. On the other hand, notice that Woolworths is constantly increasing its business, opening new stores, adding new business such as fuel and now hardware to their offering.

High turnover business might have low margins but just because they sell so much they also make greater profits. Henry Ford knew this when in the 1930s he priced his Ford T to the masses. The other thing this kind of businesses can do, which others can’t, is to pass on economies of scale to the customer, lowering prices and furthermore anchoring their loyalty.

As a matter of fact I’m convinced that not much is to be expected from a business through which little money runs. Instead, I think that you have to envisage your product, your customer and your business system with cash flow in mind. Because the fact is that cash flow brings a lot of power and profit.
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The Australian Mining Super-Tax

May 11th 2010 18:30
Four strange things happened this week in the mining industry in Australia: Xtrata cancelled an investment in a Queensland mine worth $30 million and Peabody, in its bid for Macarthur Coal decreased the amount by one dollar to $15. Values of major Australian mining companies fell on the London Stock Exchange. And, finally, just last night the Federal Government announced, as part of its budget, a “super-tax” on mining and energy companies, which admittedly will increase their total tax burden. All this requires some consideration.

What consequences would result from this super-profits tax to the mining industry? One and immediate would be that projects already started would have to be recalculated for profitability. In this sense Marius Kloppers, BHP Billiton’s CEO, appealed for it to apply only to new projects


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What Is Everybody Else Doing?

April 12th 2010 15:54
Most of us have a herd mentality – and nature put it there for a purpose – but did you, dear reader, ever wonder what it does to you when it comes to investing?

Consider this news: testifying before The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, Charles Prince and Robert Rubin, respectively Citigroup’s ex-chief executive and ex-head of executive committee, said, according to a Bloomberg report that “almost none of their peers on Wall Street predicted that sub-prime securities would bring on a credit crisis


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A Sign of the Times

March 30th 2010 17:10
Making real his old threat, Rupert Murdoch of News Corp has announced he will start charging for online content of London’s The Times and The Sunday Times. According to an article by the Telegraph of London published by the Sydney Morning Herald, last February Times Online website had 20.4 million visitors. And according to the same source, advertising revenue from the above online publications is GBP15-18 million.

We all know that advertising is moving massively and everywhere online. Online content is becoming increasingly attractive and the most direct consequence of this is that newspapers print editions will suffer in readership. Not only old style print newspapers are awkward to open and read, the online editions publish more up to date news and articles, not to mention photos, video trailers and services like the weather. And with the proliferation of electronic readers such as Apple’s iPhone and iPad and Amazon’s Kindle and others, the more that this trend will be exacerbated into the near future


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The Nature of Economic Bubbles

March 8th 2010 15:05
Economic bubbles have, in the last decade, become synonymous with real estate booms which popped-up everywhere in the western world and which at some stage were pricked by central banks. In the USA, the last real estate bubble burst generated the global financial crisis with vast and dire consequences to the world at large. What are, though, economic bubbles?

When you go to economic school, if you dear reader do go, they teach you that when demand and supply for a good or service in an economy meet at a certain point and rest, that is their equilibrium. Then they tell you that, if demand for a good or service increases, its price first increases, then supply also increases since producing to sell at higher prices is attractive. And so the equilibrium of prices moves to a higher point


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Recession-Proof Businesses

February 23rd 2010 15:02
We escaped a technical recession in 2008 in Australia, but nothing can secure us from falling into one, good or bad, in the foreseeable future. Yet, some businesses will continue to do well in boom or recession – what are these businesses?

In a nutshell, the businesses that will do well in a recession are the ones associated with consumer’s non-discretionary spending. The reader might ask: but just what is non-discretionary spending? Well, discretionary spending is that part of our income that we are free to spend, if we spend at all, in whatever we fancy. Non-discretionary spending is the part of our income that we cannot avoid spending, such as in food, transportation, clothes to a certain extent, home and car insurance and medical expenses. Others are possible and the reader, using some imagination, could easily identify a few


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Looking into the Next 50 Years

February 5th 2010 02:05
Our world is changing fast and the assumptions of today may not be valid tomorrow. What sectors of the economy are changing; what will we be facing in the future? I approach below the topics on the ageing of the population and the growth of population, but also fossil fuels and renewable energies and the future of Asia. This is not an exhaustive list of future evolving events but just an appetiser to the topic.

In the next few decades, in areas such as Australia, the US/Canada and Europe, a large part of the population, the so called baby boom generation born after WWII, will increasingly be attaining old age status. If the reader considers that this generation could be around 40 per cent of the total population, it will be easy to understand that the impact in the society and the economy will be great. Great because their needs, as baby boomer elderly citizens, will be much different than the needs of the younger population


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Capital Gains and Housing Speculation

January 26th 2010 14:26
Housing booms excite people to borrow money and buy houses in the hope of selling them for a higher price in the short term. Yet, our latest housing boom had the impractical effect of denying most young adults the possibility of buying their first house, just because their prices went so high.

There is something pernicious about buying a house with an intention to make a capital gain on sale. As Warren Buffett put it in his latest annual report, houses are to house people and to give them some enjoyment – not to give them capital gains. In the US it was this capital gain greed that led to the subprime mortgage debacle with all its effects on the economy and the financial system


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